Universal Basic Income
The impact of robots and AI will result in a large number of people losing their jobs. Not now but eventually. Right now, as of May 2024, there were approximately 8.1 million job openings in the United States. This will change as robots and AI take on more jobs across many segments. For example, there are currently 3.5 million truck drivers. As AI makes autonomous driving more practical and safer, many of those drivers will be displaced. Some will be redeployed to similar positions. Some will be retrained to qualify for new occupations. Nevertheless, I believe millions of people will end up with no job because there are no jobs available, or they will end up with dead end low paying jobs. Those jobs won’t provide adequate income to sustain their home and family obligations. State, local, and Federal government subsistence programs may help, but not sufficiently. Is there another way to aid the unemployed?
Chris Hughes, then 35-year-old cofounder of Facebook, thinks so. Hughes, whose net worth is estimated at $500 million, believes automation and elimination of jobs is going to increase income inequality. He believes the time has come to consider new and bold ways to make the economy work better for all Americans. He is co-chair of the Economic Security Project, which is a network of people committed to advancing the debate on unconditional cash and basic income in the United States.
The Economic Security Project (ESP) believes, in a time of immense wealth, no one should live in poverty, nor should the middle class be consigned to a future of permanent stagnation or anxiety. The ESP believes automation and AI are changing the nature of work, and these shifts require us to rethink how to create economic opportunity for all. They believe now is the time to think to consider expanding unconditional cash, figure out to how to pay for it, and determine what the political path might be to make it a reality. I know the very term “unconditional cash” turns off a lot of people on both sides of the aisle, but please read on.
Hughes believes a universal basic income (UBI) can help solve the inequality problem. He says his proposal could provide stability to every lower-middle income taxpayer by providing a monthly $500 supplement. He proposes to implement the supplement through the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). Hughes would expand EITC to include childcare, eldercare, and education as legitimate types of work which could be eligible for EITC. One estimate says the Hughes proposal would add an additional $290 billion to the cost of EITC. Needless to say, a significant tax increase would be required to fund his proposal. It is hard to imagine such a tax increase in the current political environment.
Numerous pilot UBI programs (experiments) are underway around the country. The experiments will enable researchers to evaluate how people spend the money, whether they spend more time with family, changed jobs, quit jobs, got new jobs, whether health and healthcare are affected, and whether people perceive an improved quality of life. There will be many debates about what constitutes success for a UBI pilot program.
UBI has enthusiastic supporters and opponents. Some say it is expensive and doesn’t really solve the many problems of an evolving economy. Others say, instead of giving cash handouts, the government and companies should work together to create innovative training and redeployment solutions for those who lose their jobs due to automation.
Some tech billionaires have expressed support for UBI or expressed a view it is inevitable because there is no good alternative. Richard Branson said many exciting new innovations are going to be created, which will generate a lot of opportunities and a lot of wealth, but there is a real danger it could also reduce the number of jobs. This will make experimenting with ideas like basic income even more important in the years to come.
Sam Altman, former President of Y Combinator, a top Silicon Valley tech entrepreneur, and CEO of OpenAI. As a self-made billionaire, he has been vocal about why UBI is a good idea. He said,
Eliminating poverty is such a moral imperative and something I believe in so strongly. There’s so much research about how bad poverty is. There’s so much research about the emotional and physical toll it takes on people. I think about the amount of human potential being wasted by people not doing what they want to do. I think about how great it would be to undo that. And that’s really powerful to me.
Altman launched an experiment where 3,000 participants in Illinois and Texas received $1,000 monthly for three years beginning in 2020. The cash transfers represented a 40% boost in recipients’ incomes. Results of the experiment were mixed. Read coverage of it here.
Elon Musk, tech billionaire behind Tesla, X, and SpaceX, said, “There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation. Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen.” In May 2017, Mark Zuckerberg Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Facebook, addressed the graduating class of Harvard. He talked about the future and the idea of UBI, which he described as a standard base “salary” for each member of society. He said the idea of helping to meet basic needs regardless of the work someone does is worth exploring. He said we should have a society which measures progress not just by economic metrics like GDP, but by how many of us have a role we find meaningful. He said, “We should explore ideas like universal basic income to make sure everyone has a cushion to try new ideas.”
There are many diverse points of view about the effects of robots and AI. I believe we should embrace the coming technologies because they will have the potential to make our lives better in the short term. In the longer term, the technologies will likely cause disruption especially in some industries and some countries. Regulation will be needed to protect our privacy from intrusion. Government intervention of some kind will be needed to protect the financial integrity of individuals and to keep families from being devastated financially by automation. Government and technology leaders need to anticipate these changes and work together to ensure the longer-term effects of automation are as positive as those in the short term.
I wrote more about UBI in Robot Attitude: How Robots and Artificial Intelligence Will Make Our Lives Better.
Note: I use Gemini AI and other AI chatbots as my research assistants. AI can boost productivity for anyone who creates content. Sometimes I get incorrect data from AI, and when something looks suspicious, I dig deeper. Sometimes the data varies by sources where AI finds it. I take responsibility for my posts and if anyone spots an error, I will appreciate knowing it, and will correct it.
In this section, I share what I am up to, pictures of the week, what is new in AI and crypto, and more.
Joanne and I were very pleased to be able to create an endowed chair for Dr. Paul Wright. Paul is an innovator and visionary. I look forward to brainstorming with him. Following is Nuvance Health’s press release following the celebration event. Pictures are in next section. Thanks to Grace Linhard, Chief Development Officer, for working with me to create the endowment. Also, thanks to Amy Forni, Director of External Communications, for getting the news out.
$2 million gift from Danbury, Conn. couple establishes inaugural Endowed Chair for Advanced Technology in Neuroscience at Nuvance Health
7/23/2024
Dr. Paul Wright’s appointment as the John and Joanne Patrick Endowed Chair for Advanced Technology in Neuroscience marks a significant milestone in advancing healthcare technology at Nuvance Health.
Dr. Paul Wright, senior vice president and system chair of the Nuvance Health Neuroscience Institute, is the first John and Joanne Patrick Endowed Chair for Advanced Technology in Neuroscience. A generous $2 million gift from Dr. John R. and Mrs. Joanne Patrick has made this prestigious appointment possible. It is the 17th endowed chair at Nuvance Health. The endowment recognizes Dr. Wright’s leadership in integrating advanced technology into neurological care at Nuvance Health.
The Endowed Chair is a testament to the Patricks’ and Dr. Wright’s commitment to advancing healthcare through technological innovation. The Patricks’ support and Dr. Wright’s leadership will enable Nuvance Health to continue its mission of providing the latest care to its patients and improving health outcomes in the community. One way the endowment will play a vital role is in implementing artificial intelligence (AI) for preventing, diagnosing and treating patients in a personalized manner.
“I am beyond thankful for John and Joanne Patrick’s generosity and overwhelmed by the extraordinary honor of being the recipient of their endowment. We share a passion for technological advancements and a vision to apply them at Nuvance Health to help people get the best healthcare possible,” Dr. Wright said.
Dr. Wright has been a pivotal leader at Nuvance Health, introducing novel technologies to enhance patient care. These include portable MRI technology for neurological patients, and remote monitoring for stroke patients to detect changes in vital signs and prevent medical emergencies.
Dr. Wright has also spearheaded a remote monitoring program for patients with mild cognitive impairment, ensuring they receive timely and effective care at home. Additionally, Dr. Wright and Dr. Jordana Sandy are studying virtual reality (VR) to help patients relax before brain surgery, aiming to improve their overall experiences and outcomes.
“Joanne and I are delighted to be able to provide this Endowed Chair. We feel proud of Nuvance Health and look forward to seeing it implement the advanced technologies Dr. Wright introduces,” Dr. Patrick said.
Dr. John R. Patrick, a visionary in technology and healthcare, has made significant contributions to the development of the Internet. Dr. Patrick has played a crucial role in shaping the digital landscape as a co-founding member of the World Wide Web Consortium at MIT in 1994 and former vice president of Internet Technology at IBM.
Dr. Patrick is also a philanthropist and an active volunteer at Nuvance Health. He is a Digital Patient Experience Executive Committee member and was previously on the Danbury Hospital and Western Connecticut Health Network boards of directors. The Patricks also established the S. Javed Shahid, MD Endowed Fund for the Advancement of Neurosurgery, launched a women’s cardiac care program and funded a cell research lab in the Ruggles Research Institute at Nuvance Health. They also helped fund the Nuvance Health Keto Diet Study for Pancreatic Cancer and developments in several other clinical areas.
Grace Linhard, chief development officer at Nuvance Health, extended her heartfelt thanks to the Patricks: “We are deeply grateful to John and Joanne Patrick for their continual support of Nuvance Health. Their dedication and generosity have been instrumental in advancing our mission to provide exceptional care.”
Linhard shared, “Endowed Chairs are bestowed upon the brightest minds and trailblazers in their field. This latest Endowed Chair will further our ability to recruit top medical and clinical staff, acquire the latest healthcare technology and conduct research — all to improve the health of our patients and communities.”
Dr. Patrick is the president of Attitude LLC and the founder of the Patrick Foundation. He also served for 12 years on the board of OCLC, Inc., which provides cloud services to libraries worldwide. He is the author of seven books about technology, healthcare and business, including “Robot Attitude: How Robots and Artificial Intelligence Will Make Our Lives Better” and “Health Attitude: Unraveling and Solving the Complexities of Healthcare.” See johnpatrick.com.
Learn more about the Nuvance Health Neuroscience Institute.
No more talks for the summer. I will be traveling a lot in July, August, and September. Will do my best to keep the weeklies coming.
Epi One has now raised $792,589.86 from 153 investors. Minimum investment is $500. Seems to be a lot of interest in early detection of cancer. The company has just acquired some new PCR (polymerase chain reaction) based testing equipment.
Crypto News This Week
The crypto market has been quite active this week. Here are some of the key developments:
- Bitcoin’s Rally: Bitcoin has seen a significant price increase, surpassing $67,000. This surge has been attributed to various factors, including potential political developments and overall market sentiment.
- Ethereum’s Dip: In contrast to Bitcoin, Ethereum has experienced a decline, potentially linked to the launch of Ethereum ETFs and subsequent outflows.ZK Proofs on Bitcoin: A major milestone was achieved with the first verified ZK-proof on the Bitcoin mainnet.This could have significant implications for privacy and scalability on the Bitcoin network.
- Regulatory Landscape: The regulatory environment continues to evolve, with discussions around stablecoin regulations and the impact of potential political changes on the crypto industry.
- AI and Crypto Intersection: There’s increasing interest in the intersection of AI and crypto, with miners exploring opportunities to leverage their computational power for AI tasks.
Overall, the crypto market is experiencing a period of volatility and significant developments.
AI News This Week
The AI landscape continues to evolve rapidly. Here are some of the key developments this week:
- Samsung’s AI Boost: The tech giant has integrated enhanced AI features into its latest foldable phones and wearables, aiming to stay competitive in the high-end market.
- OpenAI’s China Block: Amidst growing geopolitical tensions, OpenAI has restricted access to its platform from mainland China and Hong Kong, limiting access to advanced AI technologies.
- Elon Musk’s AI Claims: The tech mogul has asserted that he’s developing “the world’s most powerful AI by every metric,” sparking further discussions around AI development and competition.
- AI for Deepfake Detection: Researchers are exploring the use of deep space images to develop tools capable of detecting deepfakes.
- AI Regulation Concerns: The growing complexity of AI systems has led scientists to call for urgent regulations for “living robots,” highlighting the ethical implications of advanced AI.
These are just a few of the major AI news items this week. The field is constantly evolving, with new breakthroughs and challenges emerging regularly.
My YouTube channel is at http://www.youtube.com/jrpatric The oldest one on the channel was from a speech I gave in Paris in 1996. It is here.
The Human Immunome Project
Every week I learn something new and interesting in Medical Automation and Innovation News. This week I learned about The Human Immunome Project (HIP), a groundbreaking scientific endeavor aimed at comprehensively mapping and unlocking the secrets of the human immune system. By constructing a vast database of immune system data from diverse populations, HIP seeks to revolutionize the medical approach to disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
The immune system is a complex network which defends the body against harmful invaders. When it malfunctions, it can lead to a variety of diseases and disorders. In autoimmune diseases, the immune system mistakenly attacks the body’s own tissues. Some common examples include type 1 diabetes where the immune system destroys insulin-producing cells in the pancreas. Another common example is rheumatoid arthritis where the immune system attacks the joints, causing inflammation and pain.
Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) affects nearly 20 million people worldwide. In the United States, an estimated 1.3 million Americans have RA. I am one of them. I was diagnosed with RA about 20 years ago. The symptoms were swelling and pain in my finger joints. At first, I thought the cause was too much time with my computer keyboard. Then I learned about autoimmune disease. The treatment, which I have been using for 20 years, is a drug called leflunomide, sold under the brand name Arava.
Arava is an immunosuppressive disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD). The once-a-day pill has nearly eliminated my swelling and joint pain. It works by suppressing the immune system to reduce inflammation. The question I had was why immunosuppressants are used for rheumatoid arthritis?
RA is an autoimmune disease where the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks its own tissues, specifically the joints. Prolonged inflammation in RA can lead to severe joint damage and disability. To manage this overactive immune response, many RA treatments involve immunosuppressant drugs. RA is fundamentally a problem of an overactive immune system. Immunosuppressants work by dampening down the immune system’s activity, reducing the inflammation and damage caused to the joints.
Not all RA treatments are immunosuppressants. There are other types of drugs such as biologics which target specific parts of the immune system without causing widespread suppression. Biologics tend to be extremely expensive and may have side effects. Selecting the best treatment is a matter of balancing risks and benefits. While immunosuppressants are effective in managing RA, they can increase the risk of infections and can cause liver problems. Therefore, rheumatologists carefully monitor treatment.
I have been fortunate to not have any side-effects, and the benefits have outweighed the risks. However, the rise of Covid gave me a new concern. Increasing age and decreased immunity have caused me to be vaxxed to the max and to be careful.
There are other autoimmune diseases including lupus, multiple sclerosis, inflammatory bowel disease, psoriasis, and vitiligo (a skin condition causing loss of skin color), acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) caused by the HIV virus which destroys immune cells. Following organ transplantation, immunosuppressant medications used to prevent organ rejection can weaken the immune system. There are other immune system disorders.
The immune system is both incredibly complex and well-studied by scientists. I would say they have a good grasp of the major components (cells, organs, proteins) and their general functions. They know how the immune system fights off infections, distinguishes self from non-self, and adapts to new threats. However, the complexity leads to unknowns. The intricate details of how all the parts interact and orchestrate a powerful response still have mysteries. The bottom line is there is much more to learn. I think of it like a vast and fascinating landscape, a good portion has been explored, but there are still hidden secrets waiting to be discovered.
Hence, the birth of the Human Immunome Project. The human immunome refers to the entire repertoire of immune components, including genes, proteins, and immune cells. The HIP was conceptualized to address the limitations of traditional approaches to immunology research. Unlike previous studies focusing on isolated aspects of the immune system, HIP takes a holistic view, aiming to capture the full spectrum of immune responses and interactions.
The project officially began in 2007 with the support of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and other organizations. Initially, it focused on generating a comprehensive catalog of immune system genes and proteins. However, the project has since expanded its scope to encompass a broader range of immune components and functions.
The primary objectives of HIP are first to create a comprehensive catalog of human immune system components, including genes, proteins, and immune cells. Second is to understand the complex interactions between different immune components and how they contribute to immune responses. Third is to characterize the diversity of immune systems across different individuals and populations. Finally, is to use the knowledge gained from HIP to develop innovative treatments and vaccines for infectious diseases, autoimmune disorders, allergies, and cancer.
HIP has faced significant challenges due to the complexity of the immune system and the vast amount of data generated. However, advances in technology, such as high-throughput sequencing, cloud computing, bioinformatics, and AI have accelerated progress. The knowledge gained from HIP has the potential to revolutionize healthcare. By understanding the intricacies of the immune system, researchers can develop more effective vaccines, immunotherapies, and diagnostic tools.
I believe HIP will lead to personalized immune-based treatments based on an individual’s unique immune profile. As HIP continues to evolve, future research will focus on integrating data from different studies, exploring the immune system’s interactions with the microbiome (in our gut), and developing sophisticated computational tools to analyze the vast amount of generated data.
The Human Immunome Project represents a monumental step forward in our understanding of the immune system. Based on what I have read, as researchers delve deeper into its complexities, I believe we can anticipate groundbreaking discoveries which will shape the future of medicine and improve human health. Read more about medical research in Health Attitude: Unraveling and Solving the Complexities of Healthcare.
Note: I use Gemini AI and other AI chatbots as my research assistants. AI can boost productivity for anyone who creates content. Sometimes I get incorrect data from AI, and when something looks suspicious, I dig deeper. Sometimes the data varies by sources where AI finds it. I take responsibility for my posts and if anyone spots an error, I will appreciate knowing it, and will correct it.
In this section, I share what I am up to, pictures of the week, what is new in AI and crypto, and more.
A Norwegian startup I have invested in is energi.ai. The company operates in the U.S. in Columbus, Ohio. I have a number of friends in Columbus and they have told me about Pelotonia. aTo date, the Pelotonia community has raised more than $283 million. With support from generous funding partners, Pelotonia directs 100 percent of every dollar raised by participants to cancer research at The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center. It is a great cause. Money is raised through bike races and there is one coming up. Energi.ai has set a modest goal of $1,250 for their participation. Take a look at how the fundraising is going here.
No more talks for the summer. I will be traveling a lot in July, August, and September. Will do my best to keep the weeklies coming.
Epi One has now raised $782,221 from 144 investors. Minimum investment is $500. Seems to be a lot of interest in early detection of cancer. The company has just acquired some new PCR (polymerase chain reaction) based testing equipment.
Here’s a summary of some key happenings in the crypto world this week (as of July 19, 2024):
Bitcoin Price Fluctuations: Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster ride. It surged above $60,000 after speculation about a potential Biden withdrawal from the presidential race, then dipped on news suggesting the opposite [Coindesk].$66,700 as of 3pm Friday.
Impact of US Politics: The US political climate seems to be influencing crypto prices. Donald Trump’s rising chances in the polls, according to the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, sent Bitcoin prices soaring [Forbes].
XRP on the Rise: XRP, the token associated with Ripple, experienced a 12% surge this week, possibly due to a technical indicator and rising bullish sentiment [Coindesk].
Security Breach at WazirX: The Indian crypto exchange WazirX was hacked for a reported $230 million. Bitcoin and Shiba Inu prices on the exchange dropped significantly [Coindesk].
Stablecoin Regulations on the Horizon: Hong Kong is reportedly planning to introduce regulations for stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to a fiat currency [Coindesk].
Big Tech and Crypto: Mark Cuban, a billionaire investor, sparked discussions by suggesting Silicon Valley’s support for Trump might be driven by crypto interests [Coindesk].
These are just some of the top stories. You can find more details and breaking news by visiting websites like CoinDesk or Forbes.
Here’s a glimpse into some interesting developments in AI this week (as of July 19, 2024):
AI Security Concerns: Microsoft researchers exposed a new type of AI attack named “Skeleton Key” that can bypass safety measures in various AI models. This highlights the need for robust security protocols in AI development [AI News].
Debates on Big Tech and AI: There’s ongoing discussion around the involvement of big tech companies like Microsoft and Apple in AI development. Both companies recently withdrew from OpenAI’s board due to growing regulatory scrutiny [AI Weekly].
AI for Social Good: Researchers are developing techniques to make AI systems less susceptible to social bias. This is crucial for ensuring fair and ethical AI applications [ScienceDaily].
AI-powered Robots: Engineers are creating robots with capabilities inspired by nature. For instance, soft,expandable “muscles” are being designed to make robots move more safely and interact better with humans [ScienceDaily].
The Future of AI Hardware: TSMC, a major chipmaker, forecasts significant growth due to the rising demand for AI hardware. This indicates the increasing need for powerful computing resources to handle complex AI tasks [Artificial Intelligence News].
Ethical Considerations in AI: The discussion around regulating AI models continues. Meta and Apple have joined forces to withhold certain AI models from EU users, citing concerns over data privacy and ethical implications [AI Weekly].
These are just a few highlights. You can explore these topics further by checking resources like AI Weekly, ScienceDaily,and AI News.
My YouTube channel is at http://www.youtube.com/jrpatric The oldest one on the channel was from a speech I gave in Paris in 1996. It is here.
Apple and AI – Part 2
Apple’s much-anticipated entry into the world of artificial intelligence (AI) arrived at their Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June 2024. Dubbed “Apple Intelligence,” the suite of features integrates seamlessly into existing iOS functionalities, prioritizing user privacy and on-device processing over cloud-based solutions. In the post, I hope to shed some light on what they are doing.
When it comes to AI, no question Apple has been late to market. Siri is a form of AI and is generally considered a reliable and user-friendly virtual assistant, especially within the Apple ecosystem. However, it can sometimes fall short in accuracy and personalization compared to some competitors. In this blog post, I will delve into Apple’s June 7 AI announcement and attempt to explain the company’s strategy and key features it has promised.
The major difference with Apple’s AI strategy is it puts privacy at the forefront. Unlike competitors who leverage vast data centers for AI processing, Apple emphasizes on-device intelligence. This means most AI functionalities will happen directly on the user’s iPhone, minimizing data transfer and potential privacy risks. This approach aligns with Apple’s long-standing commitment to user privacy, a differentiator in today’s data-driven tech landscape. The on device not only enhances user privacy but also improves response times and reduces dependence on network connectivity.
However, some Apple customers want to use the cloud-based AI tools out there. Apple announced a partnership with OpenAI to enable users to take advantage of chatGPT. The Apple app makes sure you know you are venturing out into the unknown if you choose to use the 3rd-party cloud. It is rumored Google’s Gemini, which I use, will also join in a partnership with Apple.
A second distinction in Apple’s AI strategy is its focus on user experience integration. Apple Intelligence isn’t a standalone app, but rather an interwoven set of features embedded within existing iOS functionalities. This should ensure a smooth, integrated user experience. AI capabilities will subtly enhance features like email, text messages, photos, and Siri. AI has become a pivotal area of innovation for tech giants while Apple is known for its consumer-centric approach and ecosystem integration. Over the past decade, Apple has strategically positioned itself in the AI landscape, leveraging its robust hardware capabilities and commitment to user privacy.
Before the year is up, I expect we will see much more intelligence in texting and email. Apple says the intelligence will anticipate your needs and suggest relevant information while composing emails or texts. Imagine having missing attachments automatically recommended or receiving grammar and clarity suggestions before hitting send.
Photo management will probably become much more proactive. AI will analyze your photos, automatically suggest edits, create slideshows, and organize photos based on themes or locations. Apple claims this streamlined photo management will help users rediscover forgotten memories.
Another area which can benefit from Apple AI is health and wellness applications, such as the Health app and Apple Watch. These devices use AI-driven algorithms to monitor vital signs, track activity levels, and provide personalized health insights. Consumers have offered positive testimony about how fall detection and electrocardiogram (ECG) readings have improved users’ lives.
Siri, often criticized for lagging behind competitors, will receive a significant boost. Contextual awareness will allow Siri to understand the user’s intent better and provide more relevant responses. Imagine asking Siri to “find restaurants near me with outdoor seating” and receiving curated options based on your location and preferences. The integration of AI will allow it to learn user behavior patterns and suggest automations. This could involve automatically scheduling texts for birthdays, silencing notifications during work hours, or suggesting frequently used apps at specific times of day. It will be nice if Siri becomes able to handle more complex commands and queries across different applications and services.
Another area which could become important is machine learning frameworks. Apple has developed Core ML, a framework that allows 3rd party developers to integrate machine learning models into their applications efficiently. Core ML enables on-device processing of tasks such as image recognition, natural language analysis, and predictive capabilities without compromising user privacy. I am sure we will see some impressive apps appear over the next year or two.
Apple’s entry into the world of AI reflects its commitment to innovation while upholding user privacy as a core value. By leveraging on-device processing, advanced machine learning frameworks, and integration across its ecosystem, Apple continues to enhance the capabilities of its products in ways that prioritize user experience and data security. As AI technologies evolve, Apple’s approach is likely to influence the broader landscape, setting standards for privacy-centric AI development and seamless integration across devices. There will be a lot of competition as venture capitalist and tech giants pour billions into AI.
Epilogue: I suspect we will see articles saying Apple AI is too much. Articles will probably say some people would be perfectly happy with a landline phone and an old Windows PC.
Note: I use Gemini AI and other AI chatbots as my research assistants. AI can boost productivity for anyone who creates content. Sometimes I get incorrect data from AI, and when something looks suspicious, I dig deeper. Sometimes the data varies by sources where AI finds it. I take responsibility for my posts and if anyone spots an error, I will appreciate knowing it, and will correct it.
In this section, I share what I am up to, pictures of the week, what is new in AI and crypto, and more.
Dear readers,
I am trying something new. For the first ten followers who purchase any three of my books in any format, I will send them the other three autographed. You can let me know at [email protected].
No more talks for the summer. I will be traveling a lot in July, August, and September. Will do my best to keep the weeklies coming.
Epi One has now raised $760,831 from 140 investors. Minimum investment is $500. Seems to be a lot of interest in early detection of cancer. The company has just acquired some new PCR (polymerase chain reaction) based testing equipment.
Crypto News Highlights for the Week of July 8-12, 2024
Disclaimer: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the information provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
Market Trends
- Bitcoin Consolidation: Bitcoin has been trading sideways, struggling to break above the $60,000 resistance level. The market is displaying signs of volatility and uncertainty.
- Altcoin Weakness: Most altcoins have followed Bitcoin’s trend, with many experiencing double-digit losses. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also faced downward pressure.
Regulatory Updates
- US Senator Calls for Crypto Regulation Clarity: A US Senator has called for clearer regulations in the cryptocurrency space, emphasizing the need for consumer protection and investor safeguards.
- Global Regulatory Scrutiny: Cryptocurrencies continue to face increased scrutiny from regulators worldwide, with countries like India and China implementing stricter rules.
Other Notable News
- Mt. Gox Repayments: The ongoing repayment process for victims of the Mt. Gox exchange hack is still underway, with some creditors receiving their funds.
- Institutional Interest: Despite the market downturn, institutional investors continue to show interest in cryptocurrency, with some firms increasing their holdings.
- Crypto Adoption: Efforts to promote cryptocurrency adoption in developing countries are ongoing, with initiatives focusing on education and infrastructure development.
Key Takeaways
The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with Bitcoin struggling to regain momentum. Regulatory uncertainty and economic factors continue to influence market sentiment. Investors should proceed with caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
AI News Highlights for the Week of July 8-12, 2024
Here’s a summary of some of the biggest AI news stories from this past week:
Major Developments:
- SoftBank Acquires Graphcore: Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank has acquired British AI chipmaker Graphcore, marking a significant investment in the AI hardware sector. This move positions SoftBank as a major player in the AI chip market.
- Samsung Enhances AI Features: Samsung has unveiled new AI features for its latest foldable and wearable devices. These advancements focus on improving user experience and productivity through AI-powered enhancements.
- Microsoft Details “Skeleton Key” AI Jailbreak: Microsoft has revealed a new type of AI jailbreak attack called “Skeleton Key,” which can bypass safety measures in multiple generative AI models. This highlights the ongoing challenges of ensuring AI safety and security.
Other Notable News:
- AI’s Impact on Game Design: AI is revolutionizing game design by enhancing player experiences through intelligent NPCs, adaptive difficulty levels, and personalized gameplay.
- Tech Executives Confident in AI Skills: A recent survey indicates that tech executives are confident in their employees’ AI skills, but they also acknowledge adoption barriers within their organizations.
- Microsoft and Apple Step Back from OpenAI Board: Microsoft and Apple have decided not to take up board seats at OpenAI. This move comes amid increased regulatory scrutiny of big tech’s involvement in AI development.
- China Unveils Open-Source Humanoid Robot: The National Local Joint Humanoid Robot Innovation Center in China has unveiled the open-source general-purpose humanoid robot Qinglong. This development showcases China’s advancements in robotics and AI.
These are just a few of the major AI developments from the past week. The field of AI is rapidly evolving, and new breakthroughs are emerging constantly.
My YouTube channel is at http://www.youtube.com/jrpatric The oldest one on the channel was from a speech I gave in Paris in 1996. It is here.
Polling
I had planned to write more about Apple and AI this week, but another topic keeps pinging my brain. Polling. Political polling. No matter what source of news you might read, it is laden with poll information. Are they accurate, I wonder? How do they reach people? My goal in this post is to shed some light on the topic.
Political polls have become a mainstay when it comes to elections, in theory offering a snapshot of public opinion. Political polling has its roots in the early 20th century, with the invention of the telephone playing a pivotal role. Early polls relied 100% on landlines, reaching a broad swathe of the population. However, the rise of cell phones and declining landline usage has forced pollsters to adapt.
A crucial aspect of polling is ensuring a representative sample. Pollsters typically use a technique called Random Digit Dialing (RDD). This involves generating random phone numbers within a specific area code, ensuring everyone has a chance of being included. RDD picks an area code and then a random three-digit exchange and then a set of random 4-digits. Traditionally, this focused on landlines.
Then there is the cell phone conundrum. With the decline of landlines, including cell phones in polls became essential. However, it presents challenges. Cell phone numbers are often unlisted, making RDD difficult and less effective. Landline users tend to be older, more likely to live in rural areas, and skew Republican. Cell phone users are younger, more urban, and lean Democratic. This can lead to discrepancies in overall results, particularly in close races. Additionally, some people, me included, are less likely to answer calls from unknown numbers. Newer methods like mixed mode surveys (phone and online) or address-based sampling focusing on specific households may eventually help reach a broader audience.
Reaching cell phones can be more expensive for pollsters due to additional verification steps and the prevalence of pre-paid plans that limit incoming calls. Finally, as landline use continues to decline, reaching a representative sample necessitates including cell phones. Ignoring this segment would lead to increasingly inaccurate polls. New technologies like Automatic Phone Dialers (APDs) that can handle both landlines and cell phones are improving efficiency and data collection but are far from perfect.
The inclusion of cell phones in political polling has been a hot topic for over a decade. While research suggests minimal impact on overall results, there are nuances to consider. While landlines and cell phones have their pros and cons, a well-designed poll incorporating both can provide a more accurate picture of public opinion.
Polling accuracy is a constant debate. Factors like sample size, weighting demographics, and undecided voters can influence results. Polling is inherently a snapshot in time, and unexpected events can sway voter sentiment. From a statistical point of view, it is important to look at the margin of error (MOE). There are two parts to the MOE. What we see with most all polls is a plus or minus X percentage points. The other part is the confidence level the MOE is correct. A 95% confidence level means if pollsters fielded the same survey 100 times, we could expect the result to be within X percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times.
For a more specific example, suppose candidate A got 48% versus candidate B who got 43%. If the MOE with 95% confidence was +/- 3%, that means candidate A’s true poll could have been 45% to 51%. Candidate B (the underdog in the poll) could have been between 40% and 46%. In other words, the underdog could have come out on top: 46% vs. 45%. I learned a lot about statistics in research in my work on congestive heart failure in 2014. The subject of statistical accuracy for research, and for polling, is quite deep. I hope my simple example makes sense.
The polling industry is constantly evolving. Online surveys and mixed methods (combining phone and online) are gaining traction. The downside of the online approach is many of them are mainly trying to get your email address and donations. As technology changes, pollsters will need to adapt to maintain accurate and representative samples. Political polls offer valuable insights, but it’s important to understand their limitations.
I would suggest to always consider the margin of error. It reflects the potential for the polls’ results to differ from the actual population. Secondly, I would say don’t rely too much on polls. By combining polling data with other forms of political analysis, you can gain a more holistic understanding of the political landscape and avoid being misled by headlines.
Epilogue: An alternative approach to polling could be the widespread use of blockchain voting. This could enable frequent “elections” on specific topics. It does not take a large population to gain a statistically valid view of how people feel. Unfortunately, as I wrote in Election Attitude – How Internet Voting Leads to a Stronger Democracy, the trend in the United States is to make it harder to vote, not easier. In Wyoming, an article just appeared titled Hand count ballots if you don’t mind mistakes, wasting time and money. It was about a proposition being support by the Attorney General to ban use of voting machines (not connected to the Internet) to be banned. Hand count only. Rice University conducted an experiment on hand counting vs. machine counting. They provided 100 ballots and had them counted by hand multiple times. The average accuracy was 58%. The machine count accuracy was 100%.
Note: I use Gemini AI and other AI chatbots as my research assistants. AI can boost productivity for anyone who creates content. Sometimes I get incorrect data from AI, and when something looks suspicious, I dig deeper. Sometimes the data varies by sources where AI finds it. I take responsibility for my posts and if anyone spots an error, I will appreciate knowing it, and will correct it.
In this section, I share what I am up to, pictures of the week, what is new in AI and crypto, and more.
Dear readers,
The last two weeks my weekly posts did not go out or were a day late. There was a technical problem at Mailchimp. I believe it is fixed and am hoping you received the email properly on June 29 and July 5.
I was cruising in the Caribbean with my family – all 15 of us. Kids, grandkids, spouses, with Joanne and I for eight days. A great time was held by all. Proof of that is here.
No more talks for the summer. I will be traveling a lot in July, August, and September. Will do my best to keep the weeklies coming.
Epi One has now raised $753,250 from 136 investors. Seems to be a lot of interest in early detection of cancer.
Here’s a summary of some interesting happenings in the crypto world this week (as of July 4th, 2024):
- Bitcoin price drop: Bitcoin took a tumble, falling below $60,000 for the first time in two months. Analysts are debating whether this is a temporary dip or a sign of a larger trend https://cointelegraph.com/.
- Ethereum fees surpass Bitcoin: Interestingly, Ethereum generated more fee income than Bitcoin over the past year, highlighting its network activity https://www.investing.com/crypto/ethereum.
- Focus on DeFi security: There have been reports of a hack on the Ethereum Foundation and discussions about the importance of insurance in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) https://www.coindesk.com/tag/defi/132/.
- New Web3 fund: DWF launched a $20 million fund to support Web3 projects in Chinese-speaking regions,indicating continued interest in this area https://www.coindesk.com/tag/defi/132/.
- Layer 3 developments: Orbs, a layer 3 blockchain, announced the launch of its liquidity hub, potentially improving liquidity in the crypto market https://twitter.com/orbs_network?lang=en.
It’s important to stay up-to-date on crypto news, but remember that the market can be volatile.
Here’s a look at some fresh developments in AI this week (as of July 4th, 2024):
- AI Security Concerns: Microsoft researchers revealed a new technique for bypassing safety measures in generative AI models, highlighting the need for robust security in these systems https://cointelegraph.com/news/ai-artificial-intelligence-skeleton-key-attack-microsoft-expose-personal-financial-data.
- Copyright Infringement Lawsuit: The music industry is throwing a curveball with a lawsuit against AI startups for alleged copyright violation in music generation. This could be a landmark case that impacts how AI interacts with creative content https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/us-record-labels-are-suing-ai-music-generators-alleging-copyright-infr-rcna158660.
- Apple Joins OpenAI: Apple has secured a seat on the board of OpenAI, a leading research lab in artificial intelligence. This move suggests Apple’s growing interest in shaping the future of AI development https://openai.com/index/openai-and-apple-announce-partnership/.
- Progress in Language Processing Units (LPUs): Advancements in LPUs (Language Processing Units) could pave the way for more sophisticated voice AI applications in contact centers, potentially improving customer service experiences https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/17/tech/voice-actors-ai-lawsuit-lovo/index.html.
These are just a few examples. You can follow these resources for more in-depth AI news:
- AI Weekly (https://aiweekly.co/) offers a comprehensive newsletter on current AI news and trends.
- Last Week in AI (https://lastweekin.ai/) provides summaries of interesting AI research papers and news articles.
My YouTube channel is at http://www.youtube.com/jrpatric The oldest one on the channel was from a speech I gave in Paris in 1996. It is here.
Apple and AI
Apple made a splash on June 7. The company’s Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) is an annual event Apple conducts for the thousands of developers who create applications for Apple’s products. When the conference is announced as open for enrollment, the available seats are sold out in about an hour because developers are thirsty to learn about the new application programming interfaces Apple introduces each year to expand the versatility and capability of their systems. The WWDC lasts for an entire week, but the most important part from a market perspective is the first two hours when the CEO and a cadre of Apple executives present the strategy and details of new product.
The two-hour keynote speeches summarize and articulate an incredible amount of complex information technology information and make it understandable by analysts and consumers. I always look forward to watching the keynote because it symbolizes near perfection in marketing. I don’t know who invented the methodology, but somewhere early in my career, I learned it: Tell them what you are going to tell them, tell them, and then tell them what you told them. Apple follows this regimen with perfection and surrounds it with stunning video and graphics. No words are wasted. All the words are carefully crafted into a simplistic and easy to follow narrative that makes the beholder able to understand.
The speakers, looking like they came from central casting, show passion for the technology and enthusiasm as they explain it. I don’t know what the price of Apple stock should be, and I try not to confuse a great company and a great stock. However, from what I see, Apple has an extraordinary future. I have been saying this since the iPhone was introduced in July 2007.
Apple is not perfect, and at times even displays hubris. However, when I see their executives on stage enthusiastically demonstrating their products, I know they actually use their products, and this gives me confidence if there’s a feature that frustrates me, it probably frustrates them too, and it will likely get fixed. I don’t have the same confidence about the executives who run snack and cereal companies. I doubt if any of their top executives have ever had to open a cereal box or potato chips bag. They have not experienced the frustration of ripping the package to shreds in order to get it open. Apple walks the talk. Watch the keynote here.
Apple, although known for innovation and trendsetting, has been criticized for being late to the party in a number of areas. Some examples include smartphones with larger screens, smartwatches, flexible displays such as Samsung introduced, touchscreen laptops, virtual Reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), and of course advanced artificial intelligence (AI).
Sometimes, Apple prioritizes a more polished, integrated ecosystem over being the absolute first to market. In some cases, they wait to enter a market until they believe they can deliver a product which meets their high standards and integrates seamlessly with their existing devices. That was true for the Apple Watch. They were not first but, since its initial release in 2015, Apple Watch sales have reached 229.3 million. They have more than half of the worldwide market.
When it comes to AI, no question Apple has been late to market. Siri is a form of AI and is generally considered a reliable and user-friendly virtual assistant, especially within the Apple ecosystem. However, it can sometimes fall short in accuracy and personalization compared to some competitors. Next week, I will delve into Apple’s June 7 AI announcement and attempt to explain the company’s strategy and key features it has promised.
Note: I use Gemini AI and other AI chatbots as my research assistants. AI can boost productivity for anyone who creates content. Sometimes I get incorrect data from AI, and when something looks suspicious, I dig deeper. Sometimes the data varies by sources where AI finds it. I take responsibility for my posts and if anyone spots an error, I will appreciate knowing it, and will correct it.
In this section, I share what I am up to, pictures of the week, what is new in AI and crypto, and more.
Dear readers,
Last week my weekly posts did not go out. There was a technical problem at Mailchimp. I believe it is fixed and am hoping you are receiving the email properly on June 29. I am currently cruising in the Caribbean with my family – all 15 of us. Kids, grandkids, spouses, with Joanne and I. A great time is being had by all.
No more talks for summer. On June 14, Joanne and I attended a graduation ceremony for Nuvance Health neurologist residents. They are all now neurologists. The award was a complete surprise. The event took place at the Culinary Institute of America (CIA) in Hyde Park, NY.
My latest talk was on June 4 at Heritage Hills in Somers, NY. I covered “The Rise of Bitcoin and the Rise of Bitcoin”. The auditorium was packed with about 150 people, mostly seniors. After the Q&A, two gentlemen came up to the podium with more questions. They were 97 years old. I was inspired.
My recent talk was at the Rivington Club in Danbury, CT. The topic was “The Rise of Bitcoin”. A lot of good Q&A. My talk at The Heritage Center in Redding, CT was fun. It was a very nice and very smart audience. The Q&A covered a lot of issues relating to AI, Bitcoin, and Quantum Computing. A similar talk is scheduled in June in Somers, NY.
Two new videos are now on my YouTube channel. The Hammock Dunes Tech Talk 13 video is here. The Economic Round Table – San Francisco Zoom is here. In case you missed it from a prior post, my podcast with Ron Cey is here.
On April 18, I gave a talk on “The Rise of AI and Bitcoin”for the Newtown, CT Men’s Club. The club has existed for more than 100 years. I had previously spoken to this group about healthcare in 2014 when I was just putting the final touches on my doctorate.
The talk by Zoom for the Economic Round Table – San Francisco was on April 10 . It was members and guests only, but is live on my YouTube channel here.
March 28th was my 13th Tech Talk at Hammock Dunes Club. A PDF of my talk is at https://johnpatrick.com/techtalk13.pdf. The video is now available on my YouTube channel. I need to do some editing. I hope to have the final link next week.
Epi One has now raised $684,103 from 87 investors.
A lot of interest in early detection of cancer.
As of Wednesday, June 19th, 2024, the cryptocurrency market has seen a mix of news this week, with some positive developments and some signs of a potential pullback. Here’s a summary:
Price Movements:
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s price has been volatile this week, dipping below $66,000 after the Federal Reserve’s comments and then recovering slightly. Some analysts believe the uptrend might be intact, while others see a potential short-term bearish target around $60,000.
- Altcoins: Many altcoins, like Dogecoin and Solana, have seen sharper declines mirroring Bitcoin’s downward trend.
Regulations and Adoption:
- Iran to launch public CBDC pilot: Iran is reportedly planning to launch a pilot program for its central bank digital currency (CBDC) in June. This could be a sign of increasing government interest in digital currencies.
- Coinbase faces scrutiny over crypto lending product: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reportedly investigating Coinbase’s Lend product, raising concerns about regulations for crypto lending services.
Other Interesting Developments:
- Institutional Interest: BlackRock has amended its Ethereum ETF application, suggesting the potential launch of an Ethereum ETF by June.
- Meme Sector: The meme coin sector, which saw a surge in 2021, has experienced a sell-off this week, with Dogecoin experiencing significant liquidations.
Overall:
While there have been some positive developments like potential CBDC adoption, the overall sentiment in the crypto market this week has been cautious. The price movements of Bitcoin and regulations surrounding crypto lending products are key factors to watch.
Here are some resources to stay updated on the latest crypto news:
- CoinDesk: https://www.coindesk.com/
- Cointelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/
- The Block: https://www.theblock.co/
- Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/
Remember, the cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, so it’s important to do your own research before making any investment decisions.
As of today, June 19, 2024, here’s a glimpse into what’s new in AI this week:
AI-Generated Content:
- DeepMind’s AI creates soundtracks and dialogue for videos: DeepMind, a Google AI research lab, has developed an AI system that can generate soundtracks and dialogue to accompany silent videos. This could be a valuable tool for video creators who need to quickly add audio elements to their work. [Source: AI Weekly (https://aiweekly.co/)]
AI for Research and Development:
- Arm unveils new AI designs and software for smartphones: Arm, a chip designer, has introduced new AI hardware and software designed to improve the efficiency of running AI tasks on smartphones. This could lead to more powerful and intelligent mobile devices in the future. [Source: Artificial Intelligence News (https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/)]
Ethical Considerations in AI:
- Researchers develop AI agents that can autonomously hack websites: Researchers at the University of Illinois have developed AI agents that can find vulnerabilities in websites. While this research could be used to improve cybersecurity, it also raises concerns about the potential misuse of such technology. [Source: Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtificialInteligence/)]
Debates and Industry News:
- OpenAI CEO says company could become wholly for-profit: Elon Musk, a co-founder of OpenAI, a non-profit research company focused on safe and beneficial artificial intelligence, has said that the company could become a for-profit entity. This has sparked debate about the future of OpenAI and its commitment to its original mission.[Source: AI Weekly (https://aiweekly.co/)]
These are just a few examples, and there’s always more happening in the ever-evolving world of AI. Here are some resources to stay up-to-date on the latest developments:
- Last Week in AI: https://lastweekin.ai/ (Weekly text and audio summaries of AI news)
- AI Weekly: https://aiweekly.co/ (AI news and insights)
- Reddit’s r/artificialintelligence: https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtificialInteligence/ (Online community for discussing AI)
No weekly GAMMNAT spreadsheet this week as I am traveling on Friday.
My YouTube channel is at http://www.youtube.com/jrpatric The oldest one on the channel was from a speech I gave in Paris in 1996. It is here.
