AI Accuracy

Last week’s post was about AI Productivity. I thought it was a simple example, but it turned out not to be the case. I asked Gemini how far it was from our 8th floor terrace on the Atlantic Ocean to the horizon. Gemini’s response was so clear. It explained the logic, the formula, and the calculations with a result of 2.5 miles. It looked so straightforward, I did not challenge it. I should have.

Two readers, who have experience at sea, said 2.5 miles was not even close to the correct answer to my question. One of the two said, based on experience, the answer should be more like 11 miles. The other reader sent me a page from the Nautical Almanac which put the answer at 10.5 nautical miles (12 statue miles).

I sent the responses to Gemini. It said it was interesting that two experts you consulted provided a much larger distance (10-12 miles) for the horizon compared to the 2.5 miles we calculated. There are a couple of possibilities here. It’s possible there might be a misunderstanding in the information you received from the experts. The 2.5-mile distance is a well-established calculation based on the Earth’s curvature and your height above sea level. While atmospheric refraction can cause the horizon to appear slightly farther, it wouldn’t be a difference of several miles. And “perhaps the experts were considering a different scenario”. For example, it said if you were at a much higher altitude, like on top of a mountain or in a plane, the horizon would indeed be farther away. When I referred to the Nautical Almanac, Gemini said that’s an interesting detail! While nautical almanacs are excellent resources for maritime navigation, the information about the horizon distance in this case might be due to a misunderstanding because nautical almanacs typically focus on providing tables and data for celestial navigation. This includes information about the positions of stars, planets, and the Sun at various times throughout the year.

The more I went back to Gemini, the more ridiculous and defensive it became. Clearly, arithmetic is not a strong suit for Gemini. I finally threw in the towel and told Gemini I had done so. It said, “There’s no excuse for these mistakes. I apologize for the confusion and frustration they caused”.

AI shows both strengths and weaknesses when comparing its abilities in text and arithmetic. My experience has been AI is great with text. Not always but usually. On the other hand, I have found AI to be weak and inaccurate when it comes to numbers, arithmetic, and calculations. The distance to the horizon is the most extreme case I have experienced and the first time I have found the AI to be defensive.

To consider strengths and weaknesses in the area of text and understanding language nuances, AI can analyze vast amounts of text to understand complex grammar structures, semantics, and cultural references. This capability allows AI to translate languages with increasing accuracy, capturing the nuances and context of the original text. AI can condense lengthy documents into concise summaries, highlighting key points. Another strength of AI is sentiment analysis. It can identify the sentiment (positive, negative, neutral) expressed in text, such as when I threw in the towel with the calculation on the horizon. It can also be useful for social media monitoring or customer reviews.

     AI can be creative with text generation. It can generate different creative text formats, like poems, software code and scripts, musical pieces, even different writing styles. Recently, I showed my wife something I wrote with AI assistance. She said it was good but not my style. A strength of AI when it comes to style is you can tell it to re-write something. For example, you can prompt it to make it more formal, less formal, shorter, longer, bulletized, etc. I believe we will soon see an advance whereby you can feed the AI things you (or someone else) have written, and it will learn the style.

AI excels at searching through massive amounts of text to find relevant information based on keywords or concepts. This is crucial for tasks like web search. By leveraging AI to understand your search query, it can provide the most relevant results. If you don’t get exactly what you wanted, you can go into conversation mode. For example, you can say that is not what I wanted. I am looking for something like xyz. I have found conversation is the best way to maximize the value of AI.

When it comes to weaknesses, there are some significant ones. Sometimes the AI just seems to lack common sense reasoning. It can struggle with understanding the deeper meaning or implications of text which relies on common sense or real-world knowledge. Researchers around the world are working very hard to make improvements in this area.

 Probably the most important weakness is bias. When AI models are trained on biased data, it can perpetuate those biases in their outputs. This is a major concern when dealing with sensitive topics like race, gender, politics, or social issues. An area of concern is data poisoning where bad actors intentionally feed large amounts of biased or factually inaccurate data onto the web where it gets picked up by AI models.

When it comes to arithmetic strengths, Gemini touts exceptional speed and accuracy, far exceeding human capabilities. Ha ha. I would agree as AI technology continues to evolve, we can expect it to overcome its current limitations in all areas. In my talks and writing, I will continue to point out pluses and minuses of AI. There are plenty of each. In my book, Robot Attitude: How Robots and Artificial Intelligence Will Make Our Lives Better, I discussed many of the pluses in various industries, especially in healthcare.

Note: I use Gemini AI and other AI chatbots as my research assistants. AI can boost productivity for anyone who creates content. Sometimes I get incorrect data from AI, and when something looks suspicious, I dig deeper. Sometimes the data varies by sources where AI finds it. I take responsibility for my posts and if anyone spots an error, I will appreciate knowing it, and will correct it.

Productivity with AI

In my talks and writing, I try to point out pluses and minuses of AI. There are plenty of each. In my book, Robot Attitude: How Robots and Artificial Intelligence Will Make Our Lives Better, I discussed many of the pluses in various industries, especially in healthcare. In this blog post, I will discuss some pluses in productivity with AI.

One morning recently, I was sitting on our terrace watching the waves roll up on the beach. It was a crystal-clear day all of the way out to the horizon. Occasionally, we will see a container ship or a cruise ship. This day, there was nothing out there, all the way to the horizon. I asked myself how far is it from where I am sitting to the horizon. So, I asked Gemini AI the following question:

“I am sitting on the eighth floor of our condo building on the Atlantic ocean. What is the distance from here to the horizon?” Almost instantly, Gemini responded with the following:

To estimate the distance to the horizon from your eighth-floor condo overlooking the Atlantic Ocean, we can use the formula for the distance to the horizon based on height above sea level. Here’s what we can do:

1. Estimate your height: You’re on the eighth floor. Assuming typical floor heights of around 10 feet, being on the eighth floor would put you at about 80 feet above sea level.
2. Use the formula: There are online calculators for this purpose, but you can also use the following formula: Distance to horizon (miles) = sqrt(observer height (feet) 0.000052)
3. Plug in your estimated height: Assuming 80 feet, here’s the calculation: In miles: Distance = sqrt(80 0.000052) ≈ 2.9 miles Therefore, the distance to the horizon from your vantage point is estimated to be around 2.9 miles. Keep in mind: This is a rough estimate. Actual visibility can be affected by factors like air pressure, temperature, and curvature of the Earth (which isn’t a perfect sphere).

I had thought about this question some years ago when one of children was visiting. We took some guesses about far away the horizon was, but they were just guesses. I said I could figure it out. I could have just Googled for a tool to do the job but I wanted to see if I could do it myself. I got a tablet and drew a diagram showing Earth and a tall building sitting on it. I was able to make the calculation but it took a while. Certainly not “almost instantly” as Gemini could do. This is just a trivial example of how AI can boost productivity.

AI can boost productivity in many ways, freeing up your time and streamlining your workflow. Following are some examples.

• Automating Repetitive Tasks: AI excels at handling repetitive and time-consuming tasks which slow you down. This can include data entry, scheduling appointments, generating reports, or processing invoices. By automating these tasks, AI allows you to focus on more strategic and creative work.
• Enhanced Decision-Making: AI can analyze vast amounts of data to identify patterns and trends that humans might miss. This can be incredibly valuable for making informed decisions. For instance, AI can help with sales forecasting, risk management, or product development by providing insights based on customer data and market trends.
• Improved Communication and Collaboration: AI can power chatbots and virtual assistants which can answer questions, translate languages, and schedule meetings. This can free up your time for more focused communication and collaboration with colleagues. Additionally, AI-powered translation tools can enhance communication across borders and time zones.
• Personalized Workflows and Content Creation: AI can personalize tasks and content creation to individual needs and preferences. Imagine scheduling tools that learn your availability and preferences, or content creation platforms which suggest relevant topics and formats based on your audience.
• Content Curation and Summarization: AI can sift through vast amounts of information and curate relevant content for you. This can be helpful for research, staying updated on industry trends, or finding specific information within large documents. AI can also summarize lengthy reports or articles, saving you valuable time.
• Error Detection and Quality Assurance: AI can be trained to identify errors and inconsistencies in data or documents. This can help improve the quality of your work and ensure accuracy in tasks like financial reporting or legal document review.
• Predictive Maintenance and Resource Allocation: AI can analyze sensor data from equipment to predict maintenance needs and prevent downtime. This proactive approach can save businesses money and resources. Additionally, AI can help optimize resource allocation by analyzing workload and assigning tasks efficiently.

These are just some examples of how AI can boost productivity. As AI technology continues to evolve, we can expect even more innovative applications that will transform the way we work. This will take place everywhere: big companies, little companies, for-profits, not-for-profits. Will AI eliminate millions of jobs? Perhaps in the not-too-distant future. In the shorter term, many organizations in almost all industries are facing significant staffing shortages. With AI productivity, existing staff will be able to fill needed shortages.

Note: I use Gemini AI and other AI chatbots as my research assistants. AI can boost productivity for anyone who creates content. Sometimes I get incorrect data from AI, and when something looks suspicious, I dig deeper. Sometimes the data varies by sources where AI finds it. I take responsibility for my posts and if anyone spots an error, I will appreciate knowing it, and will correct it.